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Future Proof Ideas since 2005, by Erwin van Lun

E-paper in color

Philips announced its laboratories have succeeded in making a wafer-thin, bendable display in color. This electronic paper doesn't use energy any more after the page has been loaded (eg). In the end, the e-paper will be THE biggest threat for paper media. We will take it in our pocket to the train, the bathroom or the sunny beach on our vacation. Wireless connected to the internet, we'll have access to all possible content, to all our friends, to all possible brands. This medium will comply with the rules of the web, and not with the rules of paper media. It will take another couple of years, but earlier or later brands will have to cope with this.

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Reaction by Per Helge Seglsten on 29 August 2008 09:06

Except it isn’t a threat to the paper media, it’s a blessing. About 80 percent of today’s paper media’s expences relates to printing and distributing. When a flexible and portable reading device can be made, it would probably be cost effective for all print medias to join forces and give away these devices to every reading person on earth.
Furthermore: With these devices readers don’t have to struggle with reader unfriendly web design. In stead newspapers and magazines (and their advertizers) can improve - or rather revolutionize - the designs of today, combining text, stills, sound and moving pictures, links and direct interactivity with the reader. No, electronic paper is not a threat to the paper media. It’s a threat to today’s electronic media.

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Reaction by Erwin van Lun on 29 August 2008 09:21

Yeah.
Do you own one? Although I see dozens of offerings, I still know just a few people who own one, and use it. I guess we’ll have to wait for color displays and consumer centric design before we can expect a real break through.
Erwin

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Reaction by Per Helge Seglsten on 29 August 2008 09:38

No, I don’t. But I have engaged my boss in a betting; that all print media will have gone electronic within 9 years. A case of champagne is at stake… The Esquire’s october cover could very well be as big a breakthrough for eink as any ebook device.

Per Helge

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Reaction by Erwin van Lun on 29 August 2008 10:48

Interesting Per.
During the writing of my book (in 2004), I have also engaged a friend in a betting. Our bet ends on Jan 1st 2015. My conviction is that max 10% or magazines are being read on devices, replacing paper. But finally I believe, all paper will disappear, not only magazines, but in all occurences and be replaced by e-media. But it will take a while before consumers who live for more than 50 years on this planet to change behaviour.

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Reaction by Per Helge Seglsten on 29 August 2008 10:53

All paper? Which device do you think will replace toilet paper?
Well, I’ll ask my boss to send you a bottle of his champagne if he is right, and you are more right than me. But I still think the champagne will end up in my cellar. And I won’t share…

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Reaction by Erwin van Lun on 29 August 2008 11:34

Toilet paper? That’s interesting. I was thinking about menu cards in restaurants, vouchers, flyers, train tickets, notebooks (as in paper blocks), instruction manuals etc. But toilet paper? Finally I think, it will disappear, but not a result of the media-evolution, but ore as a result of robotics/health development. That will take a few years more.

Finally, paper will be used by artist as just one material to express themselves, as they use wood, metal and wool.

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Reaction by Per Helge Seglsten on 22 February 2010 23:23

Your friend is about to win the 10% of magazines read on e-paper by 2015, I think. What would your bet have been today, if you were to make it again?

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Reaction by Erwin van Lun on 23 February 2010 11:03

@Per: My friends dreams about a paid weekend, but it’s just a dream.

Let’s see what the future brings. I’m still not convinced. Although technology will be there, it will be extremely hard to change peoples behaviour.

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