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Future Proof Ideas since 2005, by Erwin van Lun

Trend observations, analysis and future predictions since 2005

Robot learns through trial and error

The 10 inches high, two-legged robot Runbot learns through trial and error. By just trying a different movement, the robot learns to adapt to new surroundings (ns). We keep developing artificial life. Through text in chat bots, in images through artificial avatars in virtual worlds, or in the physical world by building robots like these. In the end these robots will represent brands as well. They then won't just have a first name to address them, but also a family name: a brand name. This way the concept 'brand family' gets a totally different meaning. This will still take a long time, I would say about twenty years. The developments in this area go slow. In 1993 I did research for exactly this subject (I then called that 'stochastic learning'). Even so, there is constant progress. Earlier or later, robots will be all around us. This new finding adds to that development.

Telegraaf automatizes follow-up calls

Dutch newspaper concern De Telegraaf makes automatized follow-up calls to customers who have complained about not receiving their newspaper in the morning. These customers are called at night, and they are asked if they did receive the newspaper in second instance. If this is not the case, these subscribers are with high priority routed to a call center agent (tc, Dutch). Brands automatize the dialogues with their customers, and the initiative to the dialogue can come from either side. In this case, the brand calls the client. Now sometimes real people are still needed, but this becomes more and more rare. In the end the majority of contacts with a brand will be completely automatized, and only in a very rare case we will encounter a real person. This person then will be a super specialist. This is a small step in that direction.

Postbank introduces intelligent chat buddy

Postbank introduces the Postbank Buddy for Windows Live Messenger (earlier MSN Messenger). With this the Postbank customer can check his or her own balance and recent account activities, and the buddy also answers questions to the customer service department like it is completely normal.

After several other banks, among others ABN Amro (Saldo-bot) and Rabobank (Yvette), and an earlier pilot by Postbank for students, Postbank now also has a real Buddy. This buddy however is much more intelligent then earlier buddy's from its competitors. If you are a Postbank client, you add "postbankbuddy@postbank.nl" to your Messenger friends list, and you activate the buddy in your mijnpostbank.nl (the personal Postbank surroundings), you can directly chat with the buddy. You can check your balance, see the latest activities on your account, and ask questions to the customer service department. In a normal dialogue. Some examples:

Rabobank makes interactive TV program

In Rabobank's new TV program on RTL, My First Home, digital television viewers can react directly through the red button. When they do that, a page with more information about the products and services of Rabobank appears. It is the first time in the Netherlands that the red button is used in a TV program (rb, Dutch). Television, internet and gaming integrate little by little. With that, interactive worlds come into being, to which people like to come. Brand worlds which people experience from the couch, the office, or on the bus. And of course from every other place in the world. This is a small step in that direction.

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@Home has Maud as spokeswoman

At Internet Service Provider @Home's customer service clients now can ask their questions to Maud, a virtual employee. At the moment Maud isn't very smart yet: for a question like ' is @home available in Leiden?', I was referred to a different page on the website. In a next step she will directly say: 'yes, it's available in certain parts of Leiden, but not in other parts; what is your zip code?' Brand agents, like I call them, more and more often represent the brand. Now on the PC, later also on the mobile phone and TV. Now in a typed dialogue, later also complete in speech. Earlier or later we won't realize that we are talking to an artificial character any more. This is a small step in that direction.

Skoeps helps Africans register the world

News company Skoeps helps Africans register local news items through their mobile phones, and share them with the world. Through the fast growth of mobile internet, Africans can use Voices of Africa to report local happenings through text, photo and video without a computer with internet connection. This is now possible in four countries, and other countries will follow (an, Dutch). This is an ultimate example of social responsible entrepreneurship: you keep doing the same thing, but now also for the poor, unhealthy, or threatened people in the world. You use your core competences to help people. Normally you will let people pay for this - after all, you need to live off something - but every now and then you do it for free. Skoeps does exactly what it did before, but now also in Africa. Probably without earning much money, but as a long term investment in the people. A beautiful example. And at the same time, more developments become apparent in this action.

Web-log.nl starts advertising

The biggest web log service in the Netherlands, Web-log.nl starts to structurally show advertisements on its web logs. For bloggers with a free subscription that is. Paying subscribers keep an advertising-free blog (em). A personal web log is part of the human identity. Unwanted advertising disturbs that identity. It is as if your back, your mobile or your cap is sponsored by a company you can't choose. And if you do want to choose, you will start paying. This will happen on a large scale. First we might need some more extra value (ever-lasting photo and video storage for example) to justify a monthly price. In the end we will more and more pay for all kinds of services, among others web log services. This step is part of that development.

Ilse Reizen aims for completeness

Through Dutch website Ilse Reizen (Ilse Travel) consumers now have all travel options available at once. Based on criteria like a golf course, the climate, or total travel time, you will get a list of potential destinations. Then you check the price and the availability, and when you're satisfied, you book it. Now this works for flights, hotels, travel packages, car rental and a combination of these. Later holiday homes, campings and related travel products will follow. You book with the organization offering the trip, and Ilse Reizen earns money through CPS deals (mf, Dutch; ilse reizen can be tested through login: ilse, and password: bloggerpreview). This way travel coaching brands slowly come into being. Now Ilse Reizen is complete. Later she will ask all customers for their reviews about their experiences. And they will connect with social networks, so that Ilse Reizen will be able to say: John has been here last year and really loved it. This way, publishers change into coaching brands. With huge added value in the lives of consumers. This is a great example.

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Levi’s mobile phone

Fashion brand Levi's introduces its own mobile phone (mc, Dutch). Brands with a symbolic function (all brands carried on the body) will introduce brand extensions with products having a comparable function in the lives of consumers. For consumers who are satisfied with the standard functions of today's mobile phone, this is a great opportunity to express themselves. Levi's understands this. In the future, they will probably bring many more design products with relatively new technologies, like ear phones, rings, and watches.

3 billion people connected through mobile phone

At the end of July, 2007 there will be 3 billion people who use a mobile phone. This means there has been a clear shift in adoption of the device. It took twenty years for the first billion people to start calling mobile. Then 40 months for the second billion, and now only 24 months for the third billion (mc, Dutch). Theoretically, at the end of 2009 every person at this planet should have a mobile phone: a portable device that provides entrance to a virtual world in which they can meet everybody over the whole world. It won't go this fast, but this is the direction we're going. In 2015 we will be pretty far in this. A world in which everybody is continuously connected, in which everybody can see what anybody does anywhere, and what prevailing standards people have in other parts of the world. It will first give a big shock, and after that there will be total quietness.

Copy PC image with iPhone

With a simple extra program, telekinesis, it is possible to wirelessly copy images from PC to iPhone (mc, Dutch). This way ONE virtual world evolves, which we can watch in various ways. In the future when we watch live TV (soccer for example), we bring our mobile phone, which automatically turns on the moment we walk out the door to the bathroom. If we then decide to watch the rest of the game in a different room, we only have to move our phone, and the screen in that room will continue where we were. Everything will be connected. This is a development in that direction.

Baarn formalizes electronic newsletter

The Dutch city of Baarn makes it possible for its residents to send an electronic letter through a form at its website. Through the use of DigID, this e-letter has the same status as a signed, formal letter (tc, Dutch). Communication through electronic media gets a formal status. The role of governments will be to identify residents, comparable to the way they provide passports to residents who travel the world and want to identify themselves everywhere. The next step will be for residents to communicate with each other through DigID, and even companies will get an ID. This official identification will mean the end of spam, but even so the end of anonymous traveling on the internet. This will trigger the coming up of pseudonyms, but that is a different story...

Korrelatie with chat

Dutch foundation Korrelatie made it possible for its clienst to chat with a psychologist, educationist, or a social worker (mf, Dutch). Brands start to fully support distant communication between employees and customers. First just through speech (phone), now with text, later with images. In the end the conversation will be almost as real as in the normal world. The difference though is that we will be able to communicate from any place in the world, and if we want we can eliminate any disturbing element (sound for example). A world on command. And a consumer who determines the way he or she communicates with brands. This is a small step in that direction.

Windows Live recognizes voice

Microsoft has developed a beta version of Live Search for Windows, which can be operated through spoken commands (dc, Dutch). In the future we won't just search on the computer, but driving in our car, we will also yell 'call John', or 'contact Citibank'. Then the spoken dialogue continues, with a real person, or an artificial brand agent. This is a small step in that direction.

Samsung opens shop in Mobile Fashion Store

In its first Mobile Fashion Store in the Netherlands, in Amsterdam, telecoms retailer The Phone House shows the latest trends in fashion, lifestyle and mobile phones. Samsung uses a special part of this shop to present its newest design phones (am, Dutch). Mobile IT becomes a commodity. Technology is not the most important factor any more for these products: in which way the product can add to personal identities is a more important question. The same development has taken place in making clothes: the first people scraping bear skin probably didn't worry about the looks of the bear skins, as they were just interested in their functionality. Much later, design started to come up. Similarly, brands making mobile electronics will evolute into fashion brands (which buy technology). This is a small step in that development.

Hypolife works with fixed rates

Hypolife is an intermediary for mortgages, pensions and financial planning, working with fixed rates. The provision Hypolife receives from insurance companies are given back to the customer, and then a fixed rate is billed. The rates therefore are much lower, according to Hypolife. This development is seen in many more fields. Products and services are easier to compare, provisions are made public, and with that the original added value of the intermediary (and its financial rewards) disappears. Coaching brands take their place. They compare all products and all services in a certain field, in a personal context. This is largely automatized, and sometimes a specialist connected to a coaching brand will jump in to help. For this service must be paid. In these kinds of developments, coaching brands originate.

Related trends

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